Theory of Change

Theory of Change (ToC) is a big picture roadmap of outcomes, a causal framework of how and why and change process will happen in a particular context.

Theory of Change (ToC) is comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context. ToC describes the interventions or activities that will bring about a certain outcome. This is accomplished by first determining the desired outcome and then considering the preconditions or activities that are necessary to achieve the outcome. This is called an outcome framework. The process includes “working backwards” from the desired outcome to determine what required changes must occur to the outcome to be achieved. The change is based on assumptions and rationales. This approach is illustrated in a mapping format.

Design of a ToC from What is this thing called "Theory of Change?" USAID Learning Lab.

Basic information outlined in a Theory of Change (ToC) model includes:

Identification a long term goal.
Backward mapping to identify the preconditions necessary to achieve that goal.
Identification of interventions that the initiatives that will be implemented to create the preconditions (Outcomes Framework).
Develop indicators for each precondition (outcome) that will be used to assess the performance of the interventions.
Write a narrative that can be used to summarize the various moving parts in the ToC.

Adapted from http://www.theoryofchange.org/

Theory of Change should answer the following questions:

Who will be influenced or benefit from the activity (target audience)
What outcomes are you seeking to achieve (results)?
When will you achieve them (time frame)?
How will this happen (activities, strategies, resources, etc.)?
Where and under what circumstances will you do your work (environment)?
Why do think that the theory will substantiated (assumptions)?

Adapted from http://www.theoryofchange.org/

General Features of a Theory of Change:

Gives the big picture, including issues related to the environment or context that you can't control.
Shows all the different pathways that might lead to change, even if those pathways are not related to your program.
Describes how and why you think change happens.
Could be used to complete the sentence "if we do X, then Y will change because..."
Is presented as a diagram with narrative text.
The diagram is flexible and doesn't have a particular format—it can include cyclical processes, feedback loops, one box could lead to multiple other boxes, different shapes could be used, etc.
Describes why you think one box will lead to another box (e.g., if you think increased knowledge will lead to behavior change, is that an assumption or do you have evidence to show it is the case?)

Adapted from http://www.theoryofchange.org/

Theory of Change Resources: